Episode Transcript
[00:00:03] Speaker A: Hello, Oregonians, and welcome to Life and Legislation with Lucetta. If you've ever wanted to get to know your politicians personally or understand what it is they are actually doing, then you're in the right place. I'm your podcast host, Jessica Campbell. I'm your state representative for House District 24, Lucetta Elmer. This podcast is a place for you to get to know Representative Elmer both personally and professionally. We want Oregonians to feel connected with and educated politics. So we're so glad you've joined us on a fresh new podcast adventure, as we cover all things about life and legislation.
Hi, Oregonians. Welcome back to Life and Legislation with Lucetta. I'm here again with not Representative Elmer, but if you watched our last episode, you got to meet Ty, who is very informed, a part of Representative Elmer's team, and we snagged him super fast.
[00:00:56] Speaker B: Yeah, we're running around like crazy today.
[00:00:59] Speaker A: It is, it's just people are moving and it's, I mean, scheduled down to the last 30 seconds.
[00:01:04] Speaker B: And I mean to the people. Maybe if people come into the office, you would notice the energy on the floor on the third floor right now. And in our office, I mean, people are coming in and out, getting coffee, having conversations. It's. It's exciting.
[00:01:16] Speaker A: It is. So we are recording this on the morning of Thursday, day four.
[00:01:20] Speaker B: Yes.
[00:01:21] Speaker A: Of the 35 days. So what happened on day two, day three? And I think probably the biggest question that people might have is about the budget because there was a revenue forecast.
[00:01:30] Speaker B: Yes. Yesterday morning, Wednesday morning, there was a revenue forecast. Which means know every so often there's a forecast where the state economist, Department of Revenue, they come out and they say, hey, this is how much that we think the state's bringing in, how much we're going to have. And if we're in a deficit, if we're in a surplus, if we've got money or if we were running a little short.
And the, the big story, of course, is that revenue forecast. And what that revenue forecast said was that we are no longer in a deficit.
The last. Yes, the last forecast said we were down 63 million, and this one we are up 198 million.
[00:02:08] Speaker A: Whether or not you do math that fast, to go from a deficit of 63 million to.
[00:02:14] Speaker B: Which is more money than I'll ever make, by the way. I mean, like, it's, it's, it's so much money. We're talking about these huge numbers, but I mean, the, the total number that we've appropriated from the General Fund is 37 billion. Or 38 billion, 37.5 billion. So, I mean, it's a lot of money. And so just tiny little changes in the, what we think is going to come in, in the forecast can really shift the conversation here.
I think the interesting thing coming out of the forecast is that it really, it really hasn't changed the conversation, interestingly enough because we've been having this conversation about whether the, the state is going to disconnect from the federal tax rules to try to get more revenue now.
Not in a deficit anymore. And yet that conversation is still going, still going on. At least I hear it's still going on. It seems like that's still going to be on the table. So that's really interesting.
[00:03:05] Speaker A: I have like 20 new questions.
[00:03:07] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know. No, I know.
[00:03:10] Speaker A: I was not expecting that. That update necessarily.
[00:03:12] Speaker B: Yes.
[00:03:13] Speaker A: Fascinating to see. Well, what does that mean? Does that change all these bills? I'm thinking, well now do people try and push forward with some of the bills that might require money? Because now there's.
[00:03:23] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:03:23] Speaker A: Surplus.
[00:03:24] Speaker B: It's a less tight situation. Yeah.
[00:03:26] Speaker A: Yeah. It's seems like just such a huge change.
[00:03:31] Speaker B: Yes. Well, it is. It's a, it's a seismic change. But I think generally, because, you know, when it, when something is that volatile, people understand that, well, it can easily go the other direction again. And so I think the, for a lot of people, you know, the conversation is kind of staying the same. I mean, the, the conversation on disconnect with the federal tax rules is very interesting and it's one that I think people will hear a lot more about in the coming month weeks, really. I mean, we don't have a lot of time here, but we are attached to some of the federal tax rules.
There is a bill to disconnect, meaning that people would not have get to enjoy some of those tax cuts that were in HR1, otherwise known as the One Big Beautiful Bill. And they would not be able to enjoy those tax cuts, some of them. And we don't need to get into the details because it's super complicated. But for those who are curious, I would go to Senate Bill 1507. 1507 in the Dash 5amendment. And you can read through all the potential changes there.
[00:04:31] Speaker A: Fascinating. So many things. Okay, so for anybody who's really wanting to dive deeper into the revenue forecast.
[00:04:38] Speaker B: Yes.
[00:04:38] Speaker A: Links where they can.
[00:04:39] Speaker B: Yes. I mean just search up Oregon Revenue Forecast. They have go, you can go in. They have, it says like entire document and then slideshow, the slideshow kind of looks like this and you can go on and read through everything they're using to make this forecast. And then you can also see the kind of the nitty gritty details of that forecast which they get very detailed. So it's, it's, it's a good way to kind of see what's going on, see what they're projecting. And yeah, it's, it's a very helpful, helpful tool.
[00:05:07] Speaker A: Well, we'll be back. We'll record again next week on Monday.
[00:05:10] Speaker B: Yes.
[00:05:11] Speaker A: Start of week two and hear what maybe happened today, what happens.
[00:05:15] Speaker B: And, and there was a few more things. I mean, there was some big immigration stuff yesterday. It's a very important issue. There's a lot of people who care about that issue on e side of the partisan spectrum. It's a very important issue to a lot of people. And so we have some bills moving on that through, through committees, having public hearings, maybe some work sessions. And so yeah, that, that, that will also be an issue and was an issue in the last few days.
[00:05:38] Speaker A: So and then just as a reminder, no bill has actually been passed yet.
[00:05:41] Speaker B: No kind of moving, they're moving through the process right now and we're getting into today, I think we have some work sessions which, to those who don't know, bills have to have a public hearing, which means the public has to come in. They have to, you know, they get to say what they, how they feel about a bill and then they get a work session. So you go public hearing where people say something and then the work session is when they add amendments, they, they mess with it and then they vote it out and send it to the floor where the House of Representatives votes on it to send it over to the Senate and the process continues from there. But so that's where we are right now. We're just entering that work session part of the process.
And so we're really, I mean, it feels like it's been years now. It feels, it feels like we've been what, fourth day or third day? I mean, like, but it feels like weeks. And so, but we're, we are right there at the beginning of that process. But this is when things will start to pick up and where we'll start to see some action as to what is going to move through committee and what is going to end up on the floor.
[00:06:40] Speaker A: Well, we'll look forward to an update at the beginning of week two to hear all of the things. And again, remember Oregonians, you can sign up for Representative Elmer's newsletter, get more updates that way, follow on social media. Again, we Mentioned in our last episode, the OLIS website, where you can search for a certain bill, or to your point, you just said there were some bills about immigration, a hugely important topic with a lot of opinions on both sides. So you could go to that website, type in the word immigration, find all the bills connected to that, so you can follow along for anything, whatever topic you care about that matters to you. You want to know what's going on at the Capitol and not feel so maybe disconnected from it all.
[00:07:20] Speaker B: Yeah, it's complex, it's complicated, and that's the barrier to entry for a lot of people, is that it is complicated and there are a lot of moving parts. But I just also think it's important to point out that even if OLAS isn't enough, there's always sending an email to staff, for a member or to the office and saying, hey, you know, can I have some. I know somebody just emailed us a few days ago asking for some clarification on some of the tax bills. And, you know, we're willing to provide that. We're willing to help people out because we want people to understand what's going.
[00:07:49] Speaker A: On, what it actually means. Yeah, right. That's. That's what. We want this to be very informative because we do.
[00:07:53] Speaker B: We do the work and we sit down and read it. So it's like, might as well share that. Yeah.
[00:07:58] Speaker A: Appreciate you. Thank you so much for taking time. You're off to another meeting.
[00:08:03] Speaker B: Yeah. More briefs, more stuff going on. So. Yeah.
[00:08:06] Speaker A: Grab some coffee.
[00:08:06] Speaker B: Yeah. Hopefully a little bit. Yeah.
Thank you. Thank you.
[00:08:10] Speaker A: J.
Tuning into this episode of Life and Legislation with Lucetta, and we will see you next week.
Sat.
